Excited to be teaching this course again this summer. It combines two of my favorite things: climate-related uncertainty and structured decision making (SDM). Because these trainings are built around participant-led capstone projects, there’s a lot of opportunity to put into practice the “deliberation and analysis” approach recommended by the National Resource Council for making decisions in a changing climate. It helps move folks beyond “analysis paralysis,” clarifies what specific information would affect their decision, and helps people clearly evaluate the risks and benefits of deciding now vs. waiting for more information. I also like the way a structured approach shifts conversations from more general statements like “we have to revisit our objectives in light of climate change” and “we have to plan for ecosystem transformation” to explorations of what values and objectives come into play for a particular decision. What would it take to achieve our current objectives in a changing world? Heck, are we able to achieve our objectives regardless of climate change? Are we willing and able to do what it takes? As I often say, one of the dreamy aspects of SDM for someone like me is that it’s an opportunity to play with models and spreadsheets and to probe the depths of the human psyche and build understanding among disparate parties.
Course description from the National Conservation Training Center catalog:
This course provides participants with a foundation in structured decision making in the context of natural resource management problems addressing climate-related uncertainty. It will illustrate applications to water resource management, mitigation and endangered species decisions. A solid foundation in structured decision making begins with understanding current practices, theory, and noteworthy case studies including examples assessing climate change impacts. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. You will learn practical approaches to critical thinking, logic, reasoning, and structuring decisions that support your work. You will discover techniques for calculating the expected value of information to reveal the sensitivity of the decision to new information. This course gives you the skills to develop structured approaches in order to make a recommendation or decision that is explicit, transparent, and clear, even when faced with significant uncertainty.
Objectives: At the conclusion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Identify expected ecological impacts of climate change
- Apply the fundamental elements of decision analysis to reach a recommendation that addresses climate-related impacts and uncertainties
- Describe the process of using adaptive management for reducing uncertainty in managing natural resources within existing regulatory frameworks
- Learn how to classify and incorporate different types of uncertainty about system change
- Articulate the role of predictive models in adaptive management and know the desired qualities of a set of alternative models when faced with system change
- Compare modes of learning about system change and understand when and how to use different approaches
- Perform a sensitivity analysis of the decision to new information and calculate the risk and tradeoffs between learning before acting, learning while acting, and acting then learning